Prop firm pass probability calculator
Your real odds of passing a prop firm challenge, simulated against the limits that actually fail traders.
- free
- no signup
- runs in your browser
Firm rules as last checked July 2026 — always confirm against your own account. Loading a preset only fills the rule fields; your edge stays yours.
Pass or blow up — and how many trades it took
All 5,000 accounts, from the first trade to the one that ended them.
Passed Still trading FailedExpectancy math can’t fail you. A challenge can.
Multiply your win rate by your average win and you get a number that always looks good, because nothing in it can end the account early. A challenge is a race between a profit target and three walls — and the walls are checked after every single trade, in the order the firm checks them. That is the whole model.
The drawdown floor
On a trailing account the fail level follows every new high, so a good week quietly pulls it up behind you — until it locks at breakeven. On a static account it never moves. Same firm, entirely different game.
The daily loss limit
Judged on the day’s realised profit and loss, and reset every morning. One bad session inside an otherwise healthy account is a complete failure — which is why it fails traders who were never close to the drawdown.
The clock
If the target isn’t reached inside the day limit, the account is over — not blown, just out of time. This is the failure mode expectancy math ignores completely, and the one traders never budget for.
How this simulator works
Most prop firm calculators multiply your averages together and call the result an expectancy. Passing a challenge is a probability problem, and the only honest way to answer it is to play the account out thousands of times and count what happens. This is exactly what the engine does, in this order.
at your balance, with your firm’s rules
win rate decides; the payout is your avg win or avg loss, in R
- Below the drawdown floor?
- Past the daily loss limit?
- Reached the profit target?
repeat every trade, every day, until the account resolves or the days run out
- 01
It deals 5,000 accounts, one trade at a time
Every run starts a fresh account at your balance and trades it forward. Each trade is a coin weighted by your win rate: a win pays your average win in R, a loss costs your average loss in R, where 1R is what you risk per trade.
- 02
After every single trade it checks the three ways you fail
Is the balance at or below the drawdown floor? Has the day given back more than the daily loss limit? Only then does it ask whether you hit the profit target. Firms liquidate on the trade, not at the end of the month, so the model does too.
- 03
The drawdown floor moves when it should, and stops when it should
On a static account the floor sits still below your starting balance. On a trailing account it follows every new high, which is why a good week can quietly pull the fail level up behind you — until it hits the level your firm freezes it at. Topstep stops it at your starting balance, Apex at your starting balance plus $100, and after that the account can no longer be lost to drawdown while you stay above breakeven. The simulator models that lock, because ignoring it makes a challenge look far harder than it is.
- 04
The account runs out of days
If the target is not reached inside your day limit, that account is recorded as a time failure rather than a pass. This is the failure mode expectancy math ignores completely.
- 05
The percentage is just the count
Pass probability is the share of those 5,000 accounts that reached the target without breaching anything. The breakdown beside it tells you which wall the other accounts hit, which is usually the more useful number.
What it does not model
A model is only useful if you know where it stops. This one assumes every trade is independent and your edge stays constant, so it misses losing streaks, revenge trading, slippage, and commissions. It also moves your balance trade by trade, so at a real-time trailing firm it cannot see a position that ran deep against you before coming back. Treat the output as the shape of your odds, not a promise.
- No losing streaks that change how you trade, and no revenge trading after one.
- No slippage and no commissions — both of which shrink every R you win.
- Intraday excursions are invisible: a position that ran deep against you and recovered costs nothing here, but can end a real-time trailing account.
- Consistency rules, minimum trading days and news restrictions aren’t modelled.
The rest of the toolkit
View all →Seven more calculators, each built around one decision. All free, all client-side, none of them asking for an email.
Expectancy Calculator
Do you actually have an edge? Turns your win rate and average win/loss into expected value per trade, in R and dollars — the first question to answer before any other calculator here means anything.
02ROI & Risk-of-Ruin Calculator
Is the challenge worth the fee? Chains 1-step and 2-step pass odds into your real chance of a payout, then the ROI on your fee.
03Drawdown Calculator
Static vs trailing drawdown. See exactly where your account gets liquidated.
04Payout & Profit Split Calculator
What you keep after the firm takes its cut, plus the payout rules — consistency, minimum days, frequency — that decide when you actually get paid.
05Earnings Estimator
How much can you actually make on a funded account? Turns your win rate, average win/loss and trade frequency into a monthly take-home estimate, weighed by your real odds of keeping the account.
06Consistency Rule Calculator
Check whether your best day breaks the consistency rule before payout.
07Tick Value Calculator
Dollar value per tick and per point for any futures contract and size.
Who’s behind the numbers
This site is written and maintained by one working trader, not a content team. The simulator models the firms he has actually traded, the journal documents real challenge attempts — including the ones that ended badly — and every firm rule on the site is checked against the firm’s own documentation before it’s published.
Some firms pay a commission if you sign up through a link here. Which ones, and what that does not change, is spelled out in the footer.
The road to funded, documented
A working trader’s log of real attempts — the rules that end accounts, the drawdown days that test your conviction, and the math that called each outcome before it played out.